International rivalries don’t come any bigger. When Argentina meet Brazil, the world stops to watch no matter what.
Both sides look set to sail through qualification to the FIFA World Cup 2026, but that won’t spoil the spectacle of an outright grudge match that both sides will be desperate to win. Let’s look at the game through a betting lens and try to find a few winning markets to wager on.
No Messi, no problem for Argentina?
Lionel Messi’s commitment to playing for his nation is unwavering, so the fact an injury prevented him from participating in what he has labelled a “special game” will certainly sting.
Still, even with the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner absent, Argentina are favoured by the bookmakers to win this game. Home advantage will be a factor in that, but so will the contrasting fortunes of these two teams over the last few years.
La Albiceleste have enjoyed a much more productive World Cup qualifying campaign overall; they sit top of the CONMEBOL table with 28 points – seven clear of Brazil on 21 – have scored the most goals (22) and conceded the joint-second-fewest (seven). They’re also unbeaten against their great rivals since 2019.
But if star Seleção winger Raphinha’s comments are anything to go by, they won’t go down without a fight. “We will beat them, no doubt. On and off the pitch, if we have to,” he said this week in a remarkable interview that contained a series of expletives. Those who back that fiery passion will be rewarded with enticing odds.
On paper, a draw suits both sides and could be a viable route for bettors – but something tells us neither side will be particularly happy to settle for that.
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Can Julián Álvarez fill the Messi void? And will Raphinha strike with vengeance?
There’s no Messi for Argentina, but there’s also no Lautaro Martínez either. And for Brazil, Neymar’s long-awaited return to the international setup was scuppered by injury, forcing them to change their attacking plans at the last minute.
All of this begs the question: Who will score the goals?
La Albiceleste will likely look to Julián Álvarez to wield his magic wand – either from open play or a trademark set piece – as he takes on the task of leading the line, just as he did in the 1-0 win over Uruguay last week. He teed up Thiago Almada for the goal and created three other chances, the highest tally of anyone on the pitch.
Taking him to score or assist looks a worthwhile bet. It’s also important to note Argentina’s central midfielders aren’t shot-shy, so any of them could let fly from distance at any point.
For Brazil, Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo are always candidates to find the back of the net but keep in mind the fire burning inside Raphinha here too. He has promised to give “everything” to score in this game – and this is a man who has bagged 24 La Liga and UEFA Champions League goals and counting this season.
Will it be a card-fest, rather than a goal-fest?
Four of the last five meetings between these two sides featured six or more yellow cards; the one that didn’t saw three yellows and a red. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if this game followed suit and blew up from a disciplinary perspective.
Consequently, if you’re betting on a flurry of cards being shown, you have to go all the way up to eight or more to edge into odds-off territory. That’s a very high mark that isn’t particularly appealing, so a way to make the odds look a little more friendly could be to pick which team will receive the most cards.
Brazil are slight favourites for this market despite Argentina having “won” this battle in three of the last five meetings. That’s likely down to the fact that la Albiceleste boast the cleanest disciplinary record in the CONMEBOL standings, recording just 13 bookings in 13 games. The Seleção, meanwhile, have been shown more than double that figure (29).
Comparing the two teams’ personnel, Brazil certainly feel like the pick. Joelinton, Matheus Cunha, André and Murillo are all hard-nosed, tough-tackling players, while Vini Jr and Raphinha’s constant involvement in duels means they’re always in the thick of the action.
(Photo of Raphinha: Andre Ricardo / Sports Press Photo / Getty Images)
