It’s not often that Arizona gets to play a team outside its league more than once in a season, let alone having the rematch come during the NCAA Tournament. The last time that happened was 2001, when the Wildcats split a pair of regular-season games with Illinois (one in Maui, one in Chicago) before beating the Fighting Illini in the Elite Eight in San Antonio.
That 2000-01 Wildcat team, which reached the national title game, was very different in March compared to early in the season. The same goes for this UA squad, which had never lost consecutive games under Tommy Lloyd before falling 69-55 at home to Duke on Nov. 22.
The Blue Devils were also still figuring themselves out going into that clash at McKale Center, and after winning in Tucson lost to Kansas in Las Vegas a few days later. They’ve only lost once more since then, taking a 13-game win streak into Thursday’s East Region semifinal game in Newark, NJ.
To better understand how Duke (33-3) got to be the No. 1 seed and a title favorite—FanDuel Sportsbook has it at +220 to win it all, best of the remaining 16 teams and considerably better than Arizona’s +3900 odds—we reached out to JD King of SB Nation sister site Duke Basketball Report for some insight and a score prediction.
Below are his efficient answers to our incompetent questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Duke got a major scare two weeks ago when Cooper Flagg, the likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, suffered an ankle injury. How has he looked since returning to action, and are there any concerns about him being limited?
JD King: “Not at all. He looks great. I do wish that Maliq Brown was back too, he’s a superb defender and would be a big help. But Pat Ngongba has made huge strides late in the season too. I don’t know if y’all have seen him much. He’s way better than I thought he would be this year.”
Speaking of draft picks, there are six Blue Devils on draft boards, which would tie the record for most from one team in a year. Is there any worry that some players may be looking ahead to their pro careers and lose focus?
“No not really. One of the great things about this team is that it has tremendous unity. It’s been fun to watch because there is a lot of talent but what makes it really great is they seem to get along so well. I’m very impressed by that.”
Duke made a lineup change not long after the first meeting with Arizona, moving Sion James into the starting five for Caleb Foster. How much has that contributed to the 27-1 record since the start of December?
“There are two parts to that. First, Foster had ankle surgery over the summer and it took him a while to get over it. He wasn’t really himself until fairly recently. And second, James has turned out to be a huge asset. He’s a great defender, isn’t all that concerned about scoring and he’s strong as hell. He’s done a lot to help team chemistry. One of the really rewarding aspects of the late season has been seeing Foster come on. He’s been a real asset lately.”
If you had to identify one area that Duke struggles in, or is at least less than stellar, what would it be?
“Tough question. At times they don’t shoot the three that well. Biggest weakness is probably that they haven’t been tested and sometimes get flustered in tight games. Youth, what can you say? Also, as much as Khaman Maluach has improved, he can get muscled inside. I will say this though. I know Arizona has improved a lot, but so has Duke. This is not the team that came to McKale.”
With how down the ACC was, Duke hasn’t played a team still left in the field since Auburn in December. Do you think the Blue Devils have been adequately tested of late?
“UNC turned out to be a test in (the ACC Tournament in) Charlotte and Georgia Tech led in the first half. It wouldn’t hurt to have some tighter games. You’re right, it’s potentially a problem.”
Caleb Love has had some of his best games against Duke, and currently is having one of his better stretches at Arizona. Will the Blue Devils overload their defense on him and make others try to beat them or just stick with what’s been working all season?
“Not sure, but Duke can hit him with James, Flagg, Tyrese Proctor, Kon Knueppel or Foster and possibly Mason Gillis and Isaiah Evans. Duke may just switch constantly and see who gets him. That’s worked pretty well lately. I’m amazed at how much time Maluach spends chasing guards around. He’s really good at it, especially with one of the guards.”
Prediction time. Does Arizona pull off a repeat of 2011 and upset the Blue Devils again in the Sweet 16 or does Duke keep rolling toward an 18th Final Four? Give us a score prediction.
“You bastard. Just kidding! Duke 83, Arizona 75. Should be a great game.”
