The Tour of Flanders is one of the oldest cycling races on the men’s calendar having been first held in 1913. This year marks the 109th edition of the race, kicking off from Bruges and with over 17 cobbled hellingen on the 268.9km route to Oudenaarde.
It’s one of the five Monuments of cycling and only the very best can win it, so it begs the question: what’s been the most successful strategy over the years? Taking a look back at the past 20 years of the men’s race, we’ve dived into how De Ronde has been won to find out what the best tactics might be.
In the past 20 years, a sprint has decided the outcome of the men’s Tour of Flanders 45% of the time, typically in either a one-on-one battle or a three-up sprint. Due to the difficulty of the parcours and attritional nature of the race, the peloton tends to split apart naturally and a bigger group arriving at the line together is rare.
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One man found himself on the losing end of two consecutive head-to-head sprints a couple of decades ago. In 2006, having broken away on the Valkenberg, Leif Hoste had to battle Tom Boonen – one of seven riders to share the record for most wins in the Tour of Flanders (three) – and lost. A year later he faced another two-man sprint against Alessandro Ballan… and lost again. Hoste would never win a Classic in his career.
The 2020 Tour of Flanders will be remembered for two reasons. the first is Julian Alaphilippe’s crash. The Frenchman was riding strongly in a group with Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert after breaking away from the field on the Taaienberg, but collided with a motorbike, ending his race. The second reason is the two-man sprint that followed. Van der Poel vs Van Aert in a two-man sprint to win the Tour of Flanders felt like destiny, and it was the Dutchman Van der Poel, racing in his national champion’s jersey, who would just prevail to win his first Ronde.
The following year it was almost the same situation, however Kasper Asgreen and Van der Poel dropped Van Aert on the final ascent of the Oude Kwaremont and rode away together to contest the win. It looked all but certain Van der Poel would go back-to-back, but instead the Dane prevailed for what was his first Monument victory, having previously finished second to Alberto Bettiol in 2019.
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Even though Fabian Cancellara and Sylvain Chavanel had spent a large majority of the 2011 Tour of Flanders lighting up the race, it was Nick Nuyens who would prevail in the sprint finish. Boonen made the mistake of attacking in a chasing group when teammate Chavanel was out in front solo, a move that did nothing but draw out Cancellara, who bridged across to form a duo.
Despite being eventually caught on the Muur, the pair continued onwards to be part of another leading group that swelled to 12 men in the final kilometres. Cancellara attacked with 4km to go and Nuyens and Chavanel followed. Even with the group threatening to absorb them in the final kilometre, the three managed to sprint for the win. Nuyens, who had won Dwars door Vlaanderen a couple of weeks prior, came out on top to improve on his second place in 2008.
Cancellara would be part of another group sprint as defending champion in 2014. But this time he would prevail against the Belgian trio of Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke and Stijn Vandenbergh, and a week later would add another Paris-Roubaix cobblestone to his palmarès too.
The most recent instance of a group sprint came in 2022, when, after attacking clear on the Oude Kwaremont, Tadej Pogačar and Van der Poel allowed the chasers to catch them in the final kilometre. A head-to-head turned into a four-man sprint, which Van der Poel dominated, while Pogačar didn’t even make it onto the podium.
Editions of the Tour of Flanders won in a sprint finish:
- 2006: Tom Boonen
- 2007: Alessandro Ballan
- 2011: Nick Nuyens
- 2012: Tom Boonen
- 2014: Fabian Cancellara
- 2015: Alexander Kristoff
- 2020: Mathieu van der Poel
- 2021: Kasper Asgreen
- 2022: Mathieu van der Poel
The leg-sapping cobbled climbs are what makes the Tour of Flanders and are the perfect launchpads for attacks. The Eikenmolen and Koppenberg are responsible for launching Stijn Devolder (2008) and Van der Poel (2024) to their respective victories, and the Bosberg played a brief role in Boonen’s 2005 win, although technically he attacked a few kilometres afterwards.
Putting this trio of climbs aside for a second, there are three others that have been essential in the last 20 years Flanders victories: the Muur, the Paterberg and the Kwaremont.
The Muur van Geraardsbergen – also knows as Muur/Kapelmuur or simply the Muur – is a beautiful steep stretch of cobbles that leads riders out of the town of Geraardsbergen, round the corner and up to the chapel. From 1988 to 2011 it was the penultimate climb on the route and was always followed by the Bosberg.
The Muur was responsible for two consecutive Flanders wins in 2009 and 2010 before the route change. Stijn Devolder attacked from a chasing group on the Eikenmolen and dropped three riders in the last 16km here in 2009. And who else but Cancellara in 2010? The Swiss star dropped Tom Boonen on the 19% slopes to go solo for his first win in the race.
The percentage of wins achieved through an attack here would be higher if the route stayed the same. Its home is now mostly Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but we’ll always have the Flanders memories.
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Just like the Muur, the Paterberg is responsible for two riders’ successes at the Tour of Flanders.
Cancellara launched a solo 14km attack on the Paterberg in 2013 for his second win. He had formed a trio with Peter Sagan and Jürgen Roelandts after the Kwaremont a few kilometres prior but shook them off on the Paterberg’s 20.3% gradient. Sagan took note and followed suit in 2016, attacking on the Kwaremont with Sep Vanmarcke then dropping him to go it alone on the Paterberg, resplendent in the rainbow jersey.
On the current route, the Paterberg is the second part of a 1-2 punch with the Oude Kwaremont. In 2025 riders will scale the Paterberg twice and it will be the last climb before the finish.
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But the most prominent climb in winning strategies is the Oude Kwaremont. The longest solo attack for victory currently belongs to Philippe Gilbert, who stunned the field in 2017 on the second ascent, going on a 56km lone trip to the finish.
In 2018, Niki Terpstra fought hard to bridge to the leading group on the Kwaremont and immediately rode past them on a 18km solo attack, and Alberto Bettiol also launched his successful bid for glory here in 2019. And in 2023, it was where Tadej Pogačar finally dislodged Van der Poel. Due to its proximity to the finish, the Kwaremont has been a decisive climb for many editions in the route’s current form, with key splits created here in 2021 and 2022.
Editions won by going solo near or on a climb…
- 2005: Tom Boonen
- 2008: Stijn Devolder
- 2009: Stijn Devolder
- 2010: Fabian Cancellara
- 2013: Fabian Cancellara
- 2016: Peter Sagan
- 2017: Philippe Gilbert
- 2018: Niki Terpstra
- 2019: Alberto Bettiol
- 2023: Tadej Pogačar
- 2024: Mathieu van der Poel
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It can be hard to predict the right move to follow in a race littered with climbs, but the Kwaremont is the place to launch your winning attack or ditch any of the group’s faster sprinters.
And if there’s a group with Van der Poel in, that’s probably the one to follow.
Tags: ClassicsMonumentsTour of Flanders
