Tsitsipas can really struggle from the backhand wing, as he needs time to set up on the ball. And even when he has time, he’s often hitting heavy topspin shots just to try and reset rallies to eventually find opportunities to crunch his forehand. But on clay, Tsitsipas’ backhand is actually a bit of a weapon, as he gets good kick on it and can use it to set points up. From there, it’s either the forehand that will finish a point, or his ability to rush the net and put away volleys.

As far as this match goes, I see Tsitsipas working through his service games a little easier than Musetti, who still has some work to do in order to make his serve a serious weapon. I also like Tsitsipas to win most forehand-to-forehand exchanges. And Tsitsipas just has a better overall understanding of what it takes to win the types of on-court wars we see at Monte Carlo.

While I’m not the biggest advocate of using head-to-head history in a matchup, 5-0 is pretty tough to ignore. If these sets are close, Musetti could doubt himself a little in key moments.

Pick: Tsitsipas ML (-164)