Here we are again, Sabres fans. It’s early May, and for the 14th straight year, hockey fans in Buffalo are stuck worrying about ping-pong balls while the NHL playoffs roll along.
With their late-season hot streak, the Sabres played their way out of the top five lottery odds, but they still have the seventh-best odds to land the No. 1 pick. This gives them a chance at their highest draft pick since they had the No. 1 pick in 2021. This will also be the 11th time in the last 14 years that the Sabres are drafting in the top 10.
That’s not ideal, and it’s tough to sell this fan base on enthusiasm for the future. Sabres fans know better than anyone that an 18-year-old isn’t going to save the day for this franchise. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential difference-makers available to the Sabres depending on where they land in the order.
What if they get the No. 1 pick?
The Sabres have a 6.5 percent chance to win the lottery and move up to the No. 1 pick in the draft. If that’s the case, Erie’s Matthew Schaefer has emerged as the likely top prospect in the draft. He’s a 6-foot-2, left-shot defenseman with the skating and puck-moving skills to anchor a top pair down the line. The trouble is the Sabres have already spent two No. 1 picks on left-shot defensemen since 2018. In addition to Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, the Sabres also have Bowen Byram, a left-shot puck mover who is only 23 years old and due for a new contract. If Schaefer is the best player available, taking him still makes sense because they can always trade someone down the line.
What about forwards at the top?
The Sabres also have a 6.7 percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick, which would put them in position to have their pick of the top forward prospects in the class. The Sabres only have one forward on their roster who was drafted in the top 10. That’s Jack Quinn, the No. 8 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft.
Here are some of the top options available if the Sabres move up in the order:
Michael Misa, center, Saginaw (OHL)
Left shot, 6-feet, 184 pounds
Misa had a ridiculous season in the Ontario Hockey League, scoring 62 goals and adding 74 assists in 65 games. Since 2000, only John Tavares can match Misa’s point total as an under-18 player in the OHL. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler describes him as a “beautiful skater with quiet explosiveness.” He led the OHL in short-handed points and doesn’t have any trouble playing away from the puck. He projects as a potential star center.
James Hagens, center, Boston College (NCAA)
Left shot, 5-foot-10, 177 pounds
Wheeler describes Hagens as a player who has a game built around skating and playmaking. He entered the season as a strong candidate to go No. 1, but Misa and Schaefer seem to have passed him in the eyes of scouts. Still, a point-per-game season as a draft-eligible talent playing in the NCAA is nothing to scoff at. His ability to make plays at top speed, both in open ice and in small areas against older competition makes him a safe evaluation.
Porter Martone, winger, Brampton (OHL)
Right shot, 6-2, 208
Martone doesn’t have the high-end skating ability like the other forwards at the top of the board, but he’s the type of tone setter the Sabres could use more of in their prospect pool. He has a power forward’s game with a willingness to finish checks and get to the front of the net to score goals. Even though he’s a bigger player, he handles the puck well and has a shot that should translate well to the NHL. Martone is a player I’ve had circled as a Sabres target for most of the season because of his playing style.
Anton Frondell, center, Djurgarden (Sweden)
Left shot, 6-1, 198
Frondell hasn’t been out of place playing against men in Sweden because he plays a heavy game. His size and physicality stand out compared to some of the other centers at the top of the draft. And he has the skating and skill to match.
The next tier
The Sabres cannot pick fourth, fifth or sixth but have a 44 percent chance to pick No. 7 and a 36.5 percent chance to pick No. 8.
Caleb Desnoyers, center, Moncton (QMJHL)
Left shot, 6-1, 178
Desnoyers had 84 points in 56 Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League games this season, but what stands out about him is the way Wheeler describes him as someone who is “competitive and has great habits. He’s committed to playing defense, supporting pucks, staying in good positions and not cheating for offense.” His upside isn’t that of Misa or Hagens, but the Sabres have learned the importance of forwards who play a complete, 200-foot game.
Roger McQueen, center, Brandon (WHL)
Right shot, 6-5, 197
The big red flag with McQueen is the back injury he’s been dealing with over the last two seasons in the Western Hockey League. Otherwise, McQueen has the profile of a top-10 pick with the competitive play style that matches his size. As big as he is, McQueen’s puck handling and ability to make plays in tight spaces are impressive. And he has a great shot. If the injury checks out, he’ll be right in the range the Sabres are picking.
Radim Mrtka, defenseman, Seattle (WHL)
Right shot, 6-5, 207
Mrtka’s is Wheeler’s second-ranked defenseman in the class, and the fact that he’s a right shot would make him appealing to the Sabres. He has the blend of puck-moving skills and hard-nosed defensive ability that teams look for in a top 10 pick at the position.
Others to watch
Brantford center Jake O’Brien is high on a lot of lists, but his game strikes me as redundant to a lot of what the Sabres already have in their system. Everett winger Carter Bear plays the type of competitive game the Sabres need more of in their prospects ranks, but he’s recovering from a torn Achilles, and it’s unclear how that could impact his draft stock.
Could the Sabres trade the pick?
The Sabres should be open for business when it comes to trading this pick. Those trades don’t happen often, but you saw the Senators flip No. 7 in a package for Alex DeBrincat a few years ago. Buffalo shouldn’t be desperate to move the pick because it does have holes in its prospect pool. But it’s also clear that the need for an impact NHL player is a lot higher than the need for another blue-chip prospect.
(Photo of NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)
