Bond traders have lifted bets on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid concern that Donald Trump’s trade war will backfire on the US economy, sending the yield on benchmark Treasuries toward the closely-watched 4% level.

Ten-year yields declined as much as nine basis points on Thursday to 4.04%, the lowest level since October. Money markets started to price a small chance of the Fed delivering four quarter-point rate reductions this year, a scenario that wasn’t contemplated on Wednesday.