Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
In less than 100 days, President Trump has squandered his polling strength on the two issues most fundamental to his re-election: the economy and immigration.
Why it matters: Trump’s approval rating is cratering not because voters reject his goals — but because they’re increasingly alarmed by his methods. That disconnect threatens to collapse the two most durable pillars of his political brand.
1. On the economy, the single most decisive issue of the 2024 election, Trump’s polling has never been worse.
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll out Wednesday found 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy — his lowest rating ever, going back to the start of his first presidency.
- A Pew Research Center survey found Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 40%, while confidence in his economic leadership has dropped to 45% — the lowest since tracking began in 2019.
- New Gallup polling out this week showed that a majority of Americans, for the first time since at least 2001, believe their economic situation is worsening.
2. On immigration, Trump is in a relatively stronger position — but cracks are starting to emerge.
- Despite a sealed-off border and a wave of high-profile deportations, Trump is now barely above water on his best issue, according to an average of polls by data journalist G. Elliott Morris.
- A new YouGov/Economist poll found Trump’s immigration approval rating has dropped 10 points since April 16 — down to 45% — amid an escalating standoff with the courts over his deportation tactics.
- As Morris points out, Trump has effectively lost all of the ground he gained on immigration during the Biden presidency, when Americans shifted firmly to the right in response to the border crisis.
The intrigue: 50% of YouGov respondents said Trump should return Kilmar Abrego Garcia — an immigrant living in Maryland who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador — to the U.S. Just 28% said he shouldn’t.
- Democrats have publicly clashed over their approach to the case — torn between defending due process and avoiding the optics of fighting for a man who crossed the border illegally and is suspected of MS-13 gang ties.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom dismissed the case as a “distraction,” arguing it comes at a time when Trump is uniquely vulnerable on the economy and Republicans are eager to shift the focus back to immigration.
- Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who traveled to El Salvador last week, shot back: “I keep saying I’m not vouching for Abrego Garcia. I’m vouching for his constitutional rights because all our rights are at stake.”
The bottom line: Trump’s greatest assets — tough on borders, sharp on business — are becoming liabilities. That’s a major red flag for a president whose chaotic style is only tolerated when it delivers results.
